Engineering environmental solutions on a planetary scale present an immense challenge, given the complexity and multitude of variables that influence Earth’s climate system. it is often almost impossible to take all the variables into consideration that are at play on such a large scale. We need to see climate change for what it is—a real threat to our modern life—but also recognize that solutions exist. Solutions that are affordable, accessible, and viable. Across the globe, millions are already engaging in efforts to combat climate change, yet it’s crucial to acknowledge that that just trying to lessen the impact (mitigation) won’t be enough.
Mitigation means trying to cut down on the greenhouse gases we put into the atmosphere, aiming to stabilize their levels. Adaptation involves getting ready for the climate change effects that are already happening. But mitigation efforts alone will be insufficient to stabilize the climate. Despite our best efforts, the harsh truth is that achieving “Net Zero” emissions is no longer enough to stabilize our climate. The ambitious targets set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, aimed at capping global temperature rise at 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, are falling short. Current commitments put us on a path toward a 3-4 degrees Celsius increase, far beyond what is considered “safe” for our planet and societies.
To realistically aim for a future within the “safe” temperature increase limits, large-scale Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is indispensable. The challenge of climate change is cumulative, it’s a problem that builds up over time. Focusing on annual emissions alone misses the bigger picture. Even if we stopped all CO2 emissions today, the legacy of past emissions would still propel climate change forward. To meet our climate goals and mitigate the impact of climate change on our daily lives, we must remove deal with those legacy emission of 100-1000 billion tons of CO2 from the atmosphere by the century’s end. A 1.5 degrees Celsius future has become impossible to achieve without large-scale CDR projects. We need negative CO2 emissions if we want to contain the dreadful impacts of climate change. Net zero won’t be enough! I’m not saying that corporations and countries working hard to set ambitious net-zero goals should stop their efforts. We need that too! What I’m saying is that if we only focus on net-zero, and considering climate inertia, it won’t keep us within an acceptable range.
This introduces the concept of climate inertia— the inherent delay in the climate system’s response to our mitigation efforts. Much like a supertanker needs time to slow down or change course, the climate system, with its intricate web of ecological and socio-economic factors, cannot adjust instantly to reduced emissions. The slow response is due to the complex feedback mechanisms within these systems. This means even with immediate action today, the effects of our efforts will unfold over time, emphasizing the urgency of integrating both mitigation and CDR strategies. As we navigate this critical juncture in our fight against climate change, understanding and addressing the cumulative nature of carbon and the inertia of our climate system are paramount in steering us toward a sustainable future.